Hero of a Thousand Dance Moves

How Belichick's Arch-Nemesis, Again, Beat the New England Patriots

By now, my vast legions of readers (both of you) are familiar with my theory that Bill Belichick is not a mere mortal, but rather a powerful sorcerer – possibly a Sith Lord – who has decided to use his powers to be the greatest coach in any sport the world has ever seen.  And to make it more interesting for himself, and throw off the suspicions of anyone who might figure out what he really is, puts obstacles in front of himself.  Like, for example, starting college lacrosse players at wide receiver.

The AFC Championship game offered further proof of my theory.  Confronted with a ridiculously easy path to the Super Bowl (does anybody even remember who the other AFC playoff teams were?), The Mighty Belichick did the following:  had one of his minions slice Tom Brady’s hand in practice, got Gronk bonked on the head mid-game, spotted the Jaguars a big lead, and most amazingly – he really is something else – turned Blake Bortles into an actual NFL quarterback.  Despite these self-imposed obstacles, the Patriots once again cruised into the Super Bowl.

How then, to explain the loss to Eagles on Sunday?  If Bill Belichick’s powers are so otherworldly, how could the Patriots possibly lose to a backup quarterback on a team from a city whose most famous title is fictional?

Well, my theory is still spot-on accurate, obviously.  But I made a shocking omission.  If Bill Belichick is Sauron, Emperor Palpatine, and Voldemort all rolled into one ridiculous hoodie – who is the hero that vanquishes him?  Who is Frodo, who is Harry Potter, who is Luke Friggin’ Skywalker?

I’m sure many of you are familiar with the Heroic Journey, but in case you’re not, a quick primer.  In 1949, Joseph Campbell published The Hero with a Thousand Faces, in which he showed that many different cultures across many years have told hero stories with very similar, even identical elements.

This archetype has been followed closely by the creators of some of the most popular stories of our time. That is why the following description matches Frodo Baggins, Harry Potter, and Luke Skywalker – and parts of the description fit everyone from Batman to Jesus:

- A young person (usually male), is being raised in a fairly boring place by people who aren’t his natural parents (Tatooine, 11 Privet Drive, the Shire; assorted uncles and aunts)

- The parent(s) have a relevant backstory

- He learns there is a vastly more interesting world out there; Campbell calls this ‘crossing the threshold” (Princess Leia’s hologram, letter from Hogwarts, putting on the ring)

- And, that he himself is possessed of great powers, though he needs instruction to master them

- But, a great evil is in the land, and it is his destiny to vanquish it (Sauron, Voldemort, Darth Vader/Palpatine)

- Luckily, he doesn’t have to do this alone – he has friends who are brave, loyal, and often provide some comic relief (Han & Leia, Hermione & Ron, Sam & Merry & Pippin)

- Also, he’ll have a mentor – a gray-bearded wizard who instructs our young hero, and always seem to know more than he lets on (Obi-Wan, Dumbledore, Gandalf)

- The graybeard “dies” (Obi-Wan struck down by Vader; Dumbledore killed by Snape; Gandalf’s fall with the Balrog)

- But he’s not dead!  He returns, sort of, at the climactic moment!

- And of course, our hero defeats the villain, ushering in a new age

For us English majors, nursed on the mother’s milk of English literature, the archetype for all these stories is King Arthur and the original gray-bearded Wizard, Merlin.

Where was I?  Right, Bill Belichick is an evil sorcerer etc. etc.

Anyway, until this year it wasn’t quite clear who the hero was.  Peyton Manning seemed the obvious choice, since he went 3-2 against the New England Necromancer in the playoffs.  But he’s now making commercials and Bill rolls on.  Rex Ryan has had some success against the great sorcerer*, but he too has been relegated to the television dimension far from the gridiron and his successes were mere speed bumps on the Belichick Highway.

* by the way, if I was an AFC GM/Owner I’d give Rex Ryan a blank check to coach my defense.  In 17 years he’s the only coach who’s really given Belichick trouble, despite never having a good starting quarterback

But now it’s obvious:  our hero is Elisha Nelson Manning.

We should have known all along of course.  The two great Super Bowl wins.  His kinship with Peyton.  The fact that all disciples of Belichick and his apprentice Brady go crazy at the mere mention of his name – to all of New England, the words "Eli Manning" is an incantation with great power.

But his fade to playoff obscurity since the last Super Bowl had me discounting his destiny.  Then, this happened:

Yes, just as it seemed a certainty that the Patriots would take the hopes and dreams of all Eagles fans, and stomp on them like Godzilla on Tokyo, Eli appeared.  He performed a highly ritualized dance sequence…and everything turned to shit for the great sorcerer.

And thus I realized, Eli Manning is the NFL incarnation of the Heroic Journey:

- He was raised by his natural parents, but he was famously a Momma’s Boy, spending time with her while his quarterback Dad roamed the mythical land he would one day roam, fighting foes

- He crosses the threshold to New York City in the NFL, a far more interesting land than Ole Miss

- He is possessed of great powers, but he faces trial and tribulation before he can master them, ridiculed by social media and even his own fans

- But he has friends to help – Tyree and Manningham and Plaxico.

- And an elderly wizard – Coughlin the Redface

- The elderly wizard “dies” (or at least, is fired)

- But he’s not dead!  He goes to Foxboro with his Jaguars and softens them up a bit

- And finally – Eli does his Magic Dance, and the Patriots are dead!


Hopefully there won’t be any Ewok Party now to ruin things.


NB: for Campbell fans out there, yes I am aware that I somewhat simplified the hero's journey.  This was already a goofy, ridiculous post that would be read by only 7 people and appreciated by 2 - tops.  So I figured including "Refusing the Call" and "Application of the Boon" would just make things worse...

Thumb's Up

Possible Outcomes in Today's Patriots - Jaguars Game

Tom Brady's injury - or non-injury, or whatever - is the biggest development in Thumb History since the invention of hitchhiking.  Since nobody outside the Patriots' camp has any idea if TB12 is severely injured, moderately injured, or uninjured, I thought I'd take a few moments to explore the possible scenarios:

Patriots are Lying/Brady Plays/Patriots Win
Bill Belichick has always considered the NFL rulebook a quaint set of guidelines designed for other teams.  Here is the policy:

Clubs are responsible for reporting the information accurately to the public, to the opposing team, local and national media, broadcast partners and others.

The Patriots have ignored, abused, and leveraged the policy for years, using the injury report as just another tool to spread disinformation, confusion, and propaganda.  "In wartime, the truth is so precious she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies", said Winston Churchill, and while there may occasionally be a scrap of truth in the Patriots' injury report, it is usually attended by a bodyguard of lies.

But, while I put nothing past the great Sith Lord Belichick, I doubt he would sit Brady at practice on Thursday just to confuse the inexperienced Jaguars' coaching staff.

Patriots are Lying/Brady Plays/Patriots Lose
Then again...

I am quite serious when I say, that if Bill Belichick had been in charge of the CIA in the 50s and 60s, the Soviet Union would have fallen 20 years earlier.  The man is a born spymaster, a master of deception, a prober and exploiter of weakness.

Would he take a minor Brady thumb jam, see it as an opportunity to sow confusion, find some other way for TB12 to get his reps, and...nah.  I don't think so.  The Patriots might know damn well that the Precious Thumb will be healed by Sunday, but there must have been some kind of legitimate injury for him to miss Thursday's practice.

Well, if nothing else, if a healthy Brady plays and the Patriots lose, they have a built-in excuse.

Brady Not 100%/Brady Plays/Patriots Win
If we've learned one thing in Patriots history, it's that if the Patriots win, Tom is the only player who gets any credit.  Lost in last year's Super Bowl comeback was the fact that the Patriots' defense held the historically great Falcon offense scoreless in the 2nd half.  It was one of the great championship performances ever - but nobody talks about it, because Tom doesn't play defense.  In the Pat's championship seasons, Malcolm Butler's interception, Adam Vintatieri's kicks, or just that the fact that the first 3 Super Bowl wins were powered by defense - these are all footnotes in the bible of the Church of Brady.

So if Brady plays, and they win, I feel pretty confident saying that no matter what role coaching, special teams, defense, Jaguar mistakes, the weather, the stock market, Trump's tweets or any other thing play in the outcome of the game - we will hear an awful lot about Tom's Courage.

Brady Not 100%/Brady Plays/Patriots Lose
Given recent reports out of New England that Kraft essentially forced the Garoppolo* trade on Belichick to protect his BFF Tom,  this would be the most fascinating outcome.  Garappolo has yet to lose a game as a starting quarterback, and the Patriots have a short history of shrugging off Brady injuries to win anyway...so if this outcome happens, we're going to be hearing an awful lot about how the Patriots might have blown a chance at another title by trading Jimmy G.

*  If Jimmy Garoppolo is as good as Pro Football Focus says he is, we're going to have to learn to spell his name.  It's a tricky one, but remember;  2 P's and a lot of O's.


Brady Injured/Doesn't Play/Patriots Lose
Same as above - lots of Jimmy Garoppolo talk if this happens.


Brady Injured/Doesn't Play/Patriots Win
As I've written before, the Brady vs. Manning Debate is the greatest "Who is Better?" sports argument of all time.

Brady has taken the lead from Manning in most people's eyes, as he has added awesome offensive production to a full handful of rings.  Manning will still likely have better passing statistics (unless TB really does play until he's 62), but Brady's stats are close enough and, combined with the rings, will likely claim the title.

Except for one little chink in the armor:

- When Brady doesn't play, the Patriots are fine.  Brady is out for the entire 2008 season?  Hmm, here's a guy on his roster who hasn't played since high school, let's make him quarterback!  Pats go 11-5 with Matt Cassel under center.  Brady is suspended for 4 games (remember that little rulebook thing above) of the 2016 season?  Pats go 3-1 under their 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks.

- When Manning doesn't play, everything goes to hell.  In 2010, the Colts went 10-6 and went to the AFC Championship game.  They were coming off 9 straight double-digit win seasons, and had won 12 or more in 7 of them.  But Manning missed the 2011 season and the Colts went 2-14.  And their backup quarterback, Curtis Painter, was a much more accomplished quarterback than Matt Cassell - he had broken many of Drew Brees' records at Purdue.

Even Bad Peyton can't be replaced.  Manning wins the Super Bowl in 2015, playing poorly.  He retires, and Broncos win only 14 games the next two seasons, after having won 12 in Manning's last.

If Brian Hoyer leads the Patriots to a win today, it makes you wonder whether or not Bill Belichick even needs professional players to win NFL games.

+++++

There is a final scenario of course.  Tom Brady's thumb was actually ripped completely off his hand last week, but under the care of his Guru Alex Guerrero and the TB12 system - and perhaps an assist from Kramer driving the bus - the thumb was reattached, automatically regenerated, and is more powerful and accurate than ever.  He plays at his Bradyesque best, Blake Bortles' breaks down in tears after throwing his 6th interception, and the world has to, once again, watch the goddamned Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Too bad Eli isn't there to stop them.

Ventured Guesses

It takes some combination of guts and foolishness to make predictions. The world moves so fast now that anyone who climbs out on the prognostication limb gets it sawed off right behind him.

You want proof? How about The Tampa Bay Rays, Sarah Palin, and Bear Stearns. Anybody see those 3 coming?

In an unpredictable world only fools make predictions.

However, some of us cowardly online pontificators like to venture a guess once in a while. And while it might be seeking credit a bit too early, a couple of my recent ventured guesses seem to be coming to fruition.

1. McCain Plays Security Card

Last week, I wondered why McCain hasn’t made terrorism more of an election issue – specifically, that he hasn’t claimed Republican credit for a total absence of terrorist attacks on U.S. soil since 9/11.

I wrote:

"McCain’s image as a maverick has taken a hit these past few months, but anyone who has followed his career knows he can go wildly off-script at any moment. His campaign has clearly decided not to make this (9/11 and security) an issue, at least not a big one – but maybe he’ll try in the coming weeks, as desperation sets in."

Well, he tried. McCain made a speech in Tampa this week in which he said:

“Barack Obama has displayed some impressive qualities. But the question is whether this is a man who has what it takes to protect America from Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda, and other grave threats in the world. And he has given you no reason to answer in the affirmative.”

Obama immediately responded, repeating this line in a series of speeches:

"We will finally finish the fight and snuff out Al Qaeda and bin Laden, those who killed 3,000 Americans on 9/11."

So as I predicted (or at least, wondered aloud….), September 11 is now part of the campaign.

[By the way, notice how McCain says the full "Osama bin Laden" and Obama just says "bin Laden". Think that's by accident?]

2. How ‘Bout Them Patriots

When Tom Brady went down, I wrote a piece about how Brady's injury gives us a chance to test a few theses - the first being "Can Belichick win without Brady?" I suggested he could:

"With Belichick coaching, Moss receiving, and the rest of that well-run machine that is the New England Patriots, I’m betting they are playing football this January."

New England fans like the Sports Guy, all of whom think Brady is much better than he actually is, thought the season was over. Well, the Patriots are 5-2 and tied for first place in the AFC East.

Okay, I'm done congratulating myself now. You can go back to what you were doing.

Controlled Experiments

TOM BRADY'S INJURY MAY ANSWER SOME INTERESTING QUESTIONS

When Tom Brady went down in the first quarter of the first game of the 2008 season, I had two immediate reactions.

The first was: “Shoot, there goes my fantasy football season.” Only 5 days earlier, I had used the #3 overall pick in the Murray Fantasy League on Brady, hoping he’d repeat his spectacular 2008 season (4800 yards, 50 TDs). So much for that plan.

But the second was, Hmm….this is as close as you can get to a controlled experiment to test two fascinating premises:

1. Is Bill Belichick a genius?
2. Can Randy Moss make any QB great?

Chickens & Eggs – Is Belichick a Genius?
Here’s your FreeTime fun fact of the day: there are 12 Super Bowl era head coaches in the NFL Hall of Fame. 10 of them had the good fortune of coaching at least one quarterback who is also in the Hall of Fame.

George Allen (Sonny Jurgenson)
Weeb Ewbank (John Unitas, Joe Namath)

Bud Grant (Fran Tarkenton)
Tom Landry (Roger Staubach)
Marv Levy (Jim Kelly)
Vince Lombardi (Bart Starr)
Chuck Noll (Terry Bradshaw)
Don Shula (John Unitas, Bob Griese, Dan Marino)
Hank Stram (Len Dawson)
Bill Walsh (Joe Montana)

The 11th, John Madden, had Kenny Stabler. During Madden’s coaching career Stabler made four Pro Bowls*, won an NFL MVP, and twice led the league in TD passes. Stabler is arguably the best NFL quarterback not in the Hall of Fame. He was certainly better than Namath and Griese.

The 12th is Joe Gibbs. Joe Gibbs won 3 Super Bowls with 3 different quarterbacks, none of whom were serious contenders for Canton. If you want to argue Joe Gibbs is the greatest coach of the modern era, you’ll get no argument here.

Bill Belichick is also Hall-bound, and like most of the others will be joined by his quarterback. But now we get to find out – can he succeed without Tom Brady?

Remember that this isn’t the first time Belichick lost his star quarterback. In the 2nd game of the 2001 season, Drew Bledsoe went down, and Belichick was forced to turn to his untested 6th round draft pick, Tom Brady. The rest is history.

Eggs & Chickens – Does the receiver make the quarterback?
Maybe it’s not the head coach who makes the quarterback successful, or vice-versa. Maybe, just maybe, the most important guy on the field is the superstar wide receiver.

Wide receivers don’t get much love. 32 quarterbacks and 17 running backs have won an MVP, as have one defensive tackle and one linebacker. Hell, even a kicker won one (Mark Moseley, who missed 3 XPs that year) . But no wide receiver has ever been considered most valuable. (Maybe that’s why so many of them are assholes.)

And yet, there is significant statistical evidence that great wide receivers turn otherwise mundane quarterbacks into very good quarterbacks, and very good quarterbacks into great ones. Head over to pro-football-reference.com and look at the numbers for Jeff Garcia, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Randall Cunningham and Tom Brady.

Notice anything? All of them had crazy-good seasons when they were throwing to guys named Terrell Owens and Randy Moss – and less than crazy-good seasons the rest of the time.

Donovan McNabb has been a solid NFL quarterback who has led his team to many playoff appearances and appeared in five Pro Bowls, But his 2004 season stands out. He posted, by far, his best numbers in TD passes, yardage, QB rating, and completion percentage. It was the only full season he spent with T.O.

Jeff Garcia had 3 full seasons with T.O. He averaged 3720 yards and 28 TDs (30+ in two of them), and went to three straight Pro Bowls. He has been a sub-par quarterback the rest of his career.

Culpepper had three 16-game seasons with Moss at wideout. He threw for over 30 TDs in two of them, and made the Pro Bowl all 3. Since 2004, their last season together, he has been injured and ineffective and is now out of football.

My favorite is Cunningham. In 1998 Randall Cunningham was 35 years old, his best years well behind him, when he suddenly had a career year. Eight years removed from his last Pro Bowl appearance, he threw for 34 TDs, led the league with a 106.0 QB rating, and received his first and only All-Pro selection. Naturally, he was throwing to Moss that year.

And then there is the strange case of Thomas Edward Brady. Tom Brady won 3 Super Bowls before Randy Moss ever got to Foxboro, so he didn’t need Moss to be a great quarterback. But he did need Moss to become a great passer – which some people think is an integral part of the quarterback position.

Prior to Moss’ lining up alongside him, Brady had been a very good passer, but not a great one. He led the league in yards one year and TD passes another (with an unimpressive league leading 28). He had a very good TD/INT rate, and kept his QB rating in the mid-80’s to low 90’s. He was over 60% every year in pass completion percentage.

But he had never thrown for 30 TDs (those guys above all threw for 30+ when throwing to Moss/TO). He had only one 4000 yard season. And while he made a few Pro Bowls, he never made All-Pro.

Then Moss signed with the Patriots, and Tom Brady re-wrote the record books. Anyone with an objective mind would have to think, hmmm, Moss made him much better.

Have Fun Storming the Cassel
How will Bill Belichick do with Matt Cassel at quarterback? How will Cassel do with Moss?

He’s not the ideal quarterback for our controlled experiment because we have no benchmark to compare his performance. I’d rather it be Brian Griese or Kerry Collins or some guy who has a track record. In other words, we have no idea how good/bad Cassel is, so it's difficult to determine what kind of impact Belichick/Moss are having on him.

But consider this: in his few fleeting moments on an NFL gridiron, he has played what amounts to a full game. And it was a pretty good game: 22 of 39 for 255 yards, 2 TDs and a pick.

With Belichick coaching, Moss receiving, and the rest of that well-run machine that is the New England Patriots, I’m betting they are playing football this January.

* A quick primer on the difference between Pro Bowl and All Pro. The Pro Bowl is like the All Star game - full rosters of 45 guys from each conference are selected. Starters, reserves - plus replacements for injured players. All total, over 100 players are "Pro Bowlers" every year. All Pro is a much higher honor. Each year, the Associated Press selects one guy at every position for their All Pro team. So, Tom Brady has been selected to four Pro Bowls, but was not selected All Pro until last year. Peyton Manning, a much better passer than Brady till last year, has gone to 8 Pro Bowls and was selected All Pro three times. Amazingly, in 2006, Manning led the league in TD passes and QB rating and was 2nd in yards, but didn't make All Pro.