King James Redux

In late March I wrote a piece called The Duper Level in which I argued that Lebron James needed the Big Apple to launch himself from mere Superstar to Super Duper Star (The Duper Level). At the end I speculated about how this year's post-season could affect his decision:

"I think the results of this year's playoffs could impact his decision. If, for example, the Cavs choke in the postseason, he may feel he needs to stay and win a title for Ohio. And good for him if he does. But if he wins a ring for Cleveland, and does so over Utah in a 6-game series that gets lower ratings than Conan O'Brien, he just might want to hear what those folks in the Garden have to say."

But here's the thing: when I said "choke in the post-season", I meant an upset in the Finals, not a 6-game ass-whupping in the Conference semi-finals*, one that included multiple blow-outs and the entire world calling into question whether Lebron is the second coming of Karl Malone or Patrick Ewing rather than the Second Coming of the Lord.

* It's May 14th, and the 2009-2010 seasons of Lebron James, Sidney Crosby, and Alexander Ovechkin are over, further proof that making sports predictions is for fools and con men.

This unexpected development could play into the Knicks hands. Here's the Sports Guy:

"See, there was only one way LeBron was leaving Cleveland this summer: if the team fell apart so badly and indefensibly before the Finals that he could get talked into a 'You just need a fresh start with a new team' case. He couldn't leave if they lost in the Finals to Kobe's Lakers; he'd look like a coward. He couldn't leave if they won the title; no great player leaves a defending champ at the altar -- it's never happened before. But if it plays out like this? He could leave. Absolutely. It's conceivable."

Now Bill Simmons knows more about the NBA than all of us combined, but he also predicted* the Celtics would lose in the first round and the Mavericks would go to the Finals. So who knows?

* Simmons is neither a fool or a con man, but makes more wrong predictions per week than most people make in a year. But hey, ssports passion makes us foolish.

I’d like to add one other thing into the mix. Here is what Kevin Garnett told reporters about his conversation with Lebon after the game:

"If I could go back and do my situation over, knowing what I know now with this organization, I'd have done it a little sooner. Loyalty is something that hurts you at times because you can't get youth back."

KG, of course, spent his prime in Minnesota getting booted out of the first round, then came to Boston and won a title. Now, I’m only a world-class superstar athlete in my dreams, so I don’t know about these things. But I bet that the words of Kevin Garnett – somebody who has walked in Lebron James’ high-tops - have more impact than those of agents, sneaker company executives, sports writers, and maybe even the members of your entourage. And what Kevin is saying is, “Get out!!!”

Who knows? Maybe he’ll end up with the Bulls. Maybe in his own heart he needs to stay in Cleveland. I’m not foolish enough to make a prediction.

But the futures market on Knicks season tickets just went up.

March Madness: Heaven without the Stars

A while back I wrote a piece called Swimming is Boring in which I made the case that swimming was, well, boring. Sure, Michael Phelps was a huge star in the middle of an awesome accomplishment, but the actual sport – long lean hairless guys swimming back and forth – was kind of boring.

Is it possible that the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is the opposite? The actual games are thrilling. Anybody who watched Nova-Pitt or Siena’s double overtime victory over Ohio State can attest to that. But the players – I’m sorry, scholar athletes – are, um, how do I put this? Let's just say you should enjoy them now, because if recent history is any guide, these guys won't be tearing up the NBA anytime soon.

This wasn’t always the case. For a long time the NCAA tournament was a showcase for future NBA legends, a place to see players on the verge of becoming the greatest athletes in the world.

MOP Tops

From 1955 to 1961 the winners of the Most Outstanding Player (MOP) of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament were:

1955: Bill Russell

1956: Hal Lear

1957: Wilt Chamberlain

1958: Elgin Baylor

1959: Jerry West

1960: Jerry Lucas

1961: Jerry Lucas

Pretty impressive, huh? Not only did all of them but Lear make the Hall of Fame, they were each honored in 1996 as being among the 50 Greatest Players in NBA history. Plus, while Jerry Lucas was winning MOPs the best player in college hoops was Oscar Robertson, who appeared in two Final Fours. That run was nearly equaled in 1979-1984:

1979: Magic Johnson

1980: Darrell Griffith

1981: Isiah Thomas

1982: James Worthy

1983: Hakeem Olajuwon

1984: Patrick Ewing

That's 5 more members of the NBA's 50 Greatest (and the 6th, Griffith, won NBA Rookie of the Year). That's not counting Indiana State's Larry Bird, who faced Magic Johnson in the 79 title game, or Clyde Drexler, Olajuwon's teammate at Houston. Oh, and the year Worthy won the MOP the title-winning shot was hit by his freshman teammate, kid named Jordan.

In the 30 years between 1955 and 1984, the MOP was won by a future Hall of Famer 15 times! (That's not counting 2-time MOP Bill Walton who won an NBA Finals MVP and was named to the NBA's Fifty Greatest - but isn't in the Hall of Fame).

Starless Nights at Today's Tourney

But don't look for today’s NBA superstars in a March Madness highlight film.

Lebron and Kobe are the monster stars of today’s NBA, but neither played college ball. Tim Duncan and Shaquille O’Neal had distinguished college careers, but neither played in a Final Four.

Chris Paul made it to one Sweet 16. Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard skipped college. Steve Nash won a first round game with Santa Clara, then jumped to the NBA. Chris Bosh spent a year at Georgia Tech then turned pro. Dirk Nowitzki and Yao Ming came from abroad.

Of today's big stars, only Dwyane Wade played in the Final Four. But Kansas whipped his Marquette team by 33 in the Semis, so it wasn’t exactly a game for the ages.

As for the MOPs since 1984? Hoo boy. Glen Rice had a 15-year career, going to 3 All Star games. Carmelo Anthony has made two All Star teams and has a shot at a good career*. But after that it's pretty grim. Mostly a bunch of guys who barely played in the NBA, much less starred.

Who Cares?
Does any of this matter? Probably not. The sport’s popularity continues to surge, for a bunch of reasons.

First of all, there is the power of the office pool. More than five million brackets were filled out on espn.com, including one by Barack Obama (I hope he’s better at his day job). Don't ever bet against a sport that has a huge gambling component.

Second, there is the built-in renewable fan base of the student populations of hundreds of Division I schools.

Third, great sporting events don't need future legends to be great. The Olympics prove that every four years, never more so than the Miracle on Ice team.

And finally, as someone who has been lucky enough to have gone to a Final Four/Championship weekend (North Carolina's 2005 title), I can tell you it is a very special event.

Still, something has been lost in the process. When casual fans like me think back to the 1998 NCAA title game (featuring Most Outstanding Player Jeff Shepard! And leading scorer Michael Doleac!), it won’t be with the same recollection of those great tournaments of the mid-80's.

The new one-and-done rule means that future Kobes and LeBrons have to play one season of college ball. So maybe we’ll get a glimpse of these undisciplined freshman on the way to NBA riches. But don't get your hopes up - even Magic and Bird didn't do their thing as freshmen.

Ah, who cares? Three of my Final Four teams are alive and if North Carolina takes the title I’ll win my office pool. Go Tar Heels!

* Update (1/21/11): Since this post was written, Carmelo Anthony has gone from "a chance at a pretty good career" to a Top 10 player. But still - he's the very best former college champion in the NBA over the past 30 years, and I don't think anyone is ready to compare him to Wilt, Russell, Magic, Bird, Jordan and so many others.