Possible Outcomes in Today's Patriots - Jaguars Game
Tom Brady's injury - or non-injury, or whatever - is the biggest development in Thumb History since the invention of hitchhiking. Since nobody outside the Patriots' camp has any idea if TB12 is severely injured, moderately injured, or uninjured, I thought I'd take a few moments to explore the possible scenarios:
Patriots are Lying/Brady Plays/Patriots Win
Bill Belichick has always considered the NFL rulebook a quaint set of guidelines designed for other teams. Here is the policy:
Clubs are responsible for reporting the information accurately to the public, to the opposing team, local and national media, broadcast partners and others.
The Patriots have ignored, abused, and leveraged the policy for years, using the injury report as just another tool to spread disinformation, confusion, and propaganda. "In wartime, the truth is so precious she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies", said Winston Churchill, and while there may occasionally be a scrap of truth in the Patriots' injury report, it is usually attended by a bodyguard of lies.
But, while I put nothing past the great Sith Lord Belichick, I doubt he would sit Brady at practice on Thursday just to confuse the inexperienced Jaguars' coaching staff.
Patriots are Lying/Brady Plays/Patriots Lose
Then again...
I am quite serious when I say, that if Bill Belichick had been in charge of the CIA in the 50s and 60s, the Soviet Union would have fallen 20 years earlier. The man is a born spymaster, a master of deception, a prober and exploiter of weakness.
Would he take a minor Brady thumb jam, see it as an opportunity to sow confusion, find some other way for TB12 to get his reps, and...nah. I don't think so. The Patriots might know damn well that the Precious Thumb will be healed by Sunday, but there must have been some kind of legitimate injury for him to miss Thursday's practice.
Well, if nothing else, if a healthy Brady plays and the Patriots lose, they have a built-in excuse.
Brady Not 100%/Brady Plays/Patriots Win
If we've learned one thing in Patriots history, it's that if the Patriots win, Tom is the only player who gets any credit. Lost in last year's Super Bowl comeback was the fact that the Patriots' defense held the historically great Falcon offense scoreless in the 2nd half. It was one of the great championship performances ever - but nobody talks about it, because Tom doesn't play defense. In the Pat's championship seasons, Malcolm Butler's interception, Adam Vintatieri's kicks, or just that the fact that the first 3 Super Bowl wins were powered by defense - these are all footnotes in the bible of the Church of Brady.
So if Brady plays, and they win, I feel pretty confident saying that no matter what role coaching, special teams, defense, Jaguar mistakes, the weather, the stock market, Trump's tweets or any other thing play in the outcome of the game - we will hear an awful lot about Tom's Courage.
Brady Not 100%/Brady Plays/Patriots Lose
Given recent reports out of New England that Kraft essentially forced the Garoppolo* trade on Belichick to protect his BFF Tom, this would be the most fascinating outcome. Garappolo has yet to lose a game as a starting quarterback, and the Patriots have a short history of shrugging off Brady injuries to win anyway...so if this outcome happens, we're going to be hearing an awful lot about how the Patriots might have blown a chance at another title by trading Jimmy G.
* If Jimmy Garoppolo is as good as Pro Football Focus says he is, we're going to have to learn to spell his name. It's a tricky one, but remember; 2 P's and a lot of O's.
Brady Injured/Doesn't Play/Patriots Lose
Same as above - lots of Jimmy Garoppolo talk if this happens.
Brady Injured/Doesn't Play/Patriots Win
As I've written before, the Brady vs. Manning Debate is the greatest "Who is Better?" sports argument of all time.
Brady has taken the lead from Manning in most people's eyes, as he has added awesome offensive production to a full handful of rings. Manning will still likely have better passing statistics (unless TB really does play until he's 62), but Brady's stats are close enough and, combined with the rings, will likely claim the title.
Except for one little chink in the armor:
- When Brady doesn't play, the Patriots are fine. Brady is out for the entire 2008 season? Hmm, here's a guy on his roster who hasn't played since high school, let's make him quarterback! Pats go 11-5 with Matt Cassel under center. Brady is suspended for 4 games (remember that little rulebook thing above) of the 2016 season? Pats go 3-1 under their 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks.
- When Manning doesn't play, everything goes to hell. In 2010, the Colts went 10-6 and went to the AFC Championship game. They were coming off 9 straight double-digit win seasons, and had won 12 or more in 7 of them. But Manning missed the 2011 season and the Colts went 2-14. And their backup quarterback, Curtis Painter, was a much more accomplished quarterback than Matt Cassell - he had broken many of Drew Brees' records at Purdue.
Even Bad Peyton can't be replaced. Manning wins the Super Bowl in 2015, playing poorly. He retires, and Broncos win only 14 games the next two seasons, after having won 12 in Manning's last.
If Brian Hoyer leads the Patriots to a win today, it makes you wonder whether or not Bill Belichick even needs professional players to win NFL games.
+++++
There is a final scenario of course. Tom Brady's thumb was actually ripped completely off his hand last week, but under the care of his Guru Alex Guerrero and the TB12 system - and perhaps an assist from Kramer driving the bus - the thumb was reattached, automatically regenerated, and is more powerful and accurate than ever. He plays at his Bradyesque best, Blake Bortles' breaks down in tears after throwing his 6th interception, and the world has to, once again, watch the goddamned Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Too bad Eli isn't there to stop them.
Showing posts with label tom brady. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tom brady. Show all posts
Sunday, January 21, 2018
Monday, May 11, 2015
A Gate Worthy of Its Name
For 40 years, lazy journalists have tacked the suffix -gate onto every scandal imaginable.
Travelgate. Irangate. Spygate. The ever popular Nipplegate (or if you prefer, Wardrobe Malfunctiongate). Gate scandals have gone global, in Argentina, Korea, and Germany.
My personal favorite is Gategate, a mini-contretemps in England involving an actual gate.
But very few of these Scandalgates resemble the original Watergate scandal in any meaningful way. Until now. Deflategate is a delicious scandal*, not just because it rhymes but because in significant ways it follows the story line of the original Watergate scandal.
* full disclosure: it's also delicious because I enjoy watching Tom Brady and the Patriots suffer. I'm a Giants fan, and the two Giants-Pats Super Bowls, well, I don't want to say those days were happier than my Wedding Day and the birth of my kids, but well...and also, in the great Manning vs. Brady debate, I'm a Manning partisan. When the cameras showed a shades-inside Brady sauntering into the Mayweather-Pacquiao flight, fresh from his private jet from Kentucky Derby, I muttered at the TV, "Take off the sunglasses inside, you insufferable douc-"...Okay, it's possible I'm not totally objective on this story.
Here's how Deflategate is like Watergate:
The Cheating was Unnecessary
When the scandal first broke in January, Patriots fans rushed to Facebook and Twitter to say, "It's irrelevant - the Patriots beat the Colts 45-7!" Wrong answer. What's irrelevant is the score. Cheating is cheating, and whether or not you needed to is irrelevant.
Take, for example, oh I don't know, the original Watergate scandal. A group of low-level guys loosely affiliated with the Nixon campaign broke into the Democratic National Committee headquarters in the Watergate office complex in June 1972. 5 months later, Nixon won in a massive landslide reelection - 49 states to 1! He put a bigger whooping on George McGovern than the Pats put on the Colts.
I don't recall any of the Nixon Administration figures, grilled before the Senate, saying "Hey, it doesn't matter what happened - we won 49 states to 1, baby!"
The Cover-up was Worse - and Clumsier - than the Crime
Richard Nixon may not have invented 'the cover-up was worse than the crime', but he elevated it to an art form.
Tom Brady is no Richard Nixon. And unlike Tricky Dick, Shady Brady seems to have been in on this plan from the beginning.
But still, there are intriguing Watergate parallels. The missing texts are the missing tapes. The cover up included easily proven falsehoods like Brady claiming not to even know the equipment guy's name. And of course, there were the constant protestations of innocence even as investigators were finding more and more evidence.
It's All About the Legacy
Richard Nixon's reputation was pretty darn good before it all unraveled. His trip to China earlier in 1972 was a huge foreign policy achievement. He was on the verge of ending the Vietnam war. And was popular enough to win reelection on a scale no Bush, Clinton, or Obama could even imagine.
Then came Watergate, resignation, disgrace.
Tom Brady won't - and shouldn't - be forced to end his career like Richard Nixon. But in the end, what matters most about this scandal is that it tarnishes his legacy.
Tom Brady is in the GOAT* conversation. GOAT conversations aren't decided by blue-ribbon panels or by the leagues . They're not decided by sportswriters or broadcasters - though they play a role. They are not decided by stats geeks or league historians. There's no vote.
* Greatest of All Time
They are decided, if at all, by consensus. We, the Collective Sports Fan, talk. And we argue and we compare stats and titles. And we call sports radio. And sometimes, sometimes, we reach a consensus.
Wayne Gretzky. Michael Jordan. Jack Nicklaus. John Wooden. There is consensus that these are the GOATS in their field (though Bird and Magic and Tiger have their supporters. The Great One and The Wizard of Westwood stand alone).
When Tom Brady won his 4th Super Bowl, he took a long stride towards winning the NFL GOAT award. No player in history had combined Rings and Stats like Brady. It was going to be difficult for Peyton Manning fans to argue the guy with one ring (and all the passing records) was the GOAT. It was going to be hard for Joe Montana fans to argue the guy with 15,000 fewer yards and 150 fewer TDs (and the same amount of rings) was the GOAT.
Tom Brady had laid claim to arguably the greatest sports laurel available to the American athlete - the greatest football player ever.
And now? Well, everybody from New England will still vote for him. And there will be pockets of Brady supporters everywhere.
But the consensus is lost. With every pound per square inch the Patriots' equipment managers released from those balls, they released a bit of Tom Brady's claim to be the Greatest of All Time.
Bonus Material
The break-in guys in Watergate were the plumbers; and the deflaters did their work in the bathroom.
Ryan Grigson is Deep Throat.*
* this is one of the interesting story lines that hasn't gotten enough attention. Colts GM Ryan Grigson sent an email to the NFL before the game, alerting them to the possibility of deflated footballs. Presumably this means this wasn't the first time Tom Shady sent his equipment boys into the bathroom to sit on footballs.
Will Roger Goodell play the role of Gerald Ford, and pardon Tom Brady?
Update: Apparently Not! 4 games, a million bucks, and 2 draft picks is no Ford pardon.
And finally, is Bill Simmons departure from ESPN the week of the Wells report a coincidence? Surely not...
This is just too much fun. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to get back to crank-calling my Patriots fans friends. When they answer I just go "ppppppppppppsssssssssssssshhhhhhhhhhhhhtttttttttt."
Friday, October 14, 2011
Mann Down
The Latest Twist in Manning-Brady Rivalry
Quarterbacks, more than any other athlete performing any other task, rely on their teammates.
Up to half a dozen man-mountains block for them. Freakishly large-handed speed demons catch the passes thrown by them. QBs hand the ball off to quick and powerful men who run for them - which helps make it easier for them to throw. They are guided by a team of brilliant workaholics who come up with detailed and intricate plans, who literally write books about what quarterbacks should do.
I'm not saying quarterback is an easy job. In fact, it's arguably the hardest job in the world to excel at. Think about it: at any given point in time, there's only about 15 people on the planet who are doing a good job as an NFL quarterback. Are there more than 15 good neurosurgeons in the world? Does the 16th best particle physicist on the planet perform at a higher level than Joe Flacco? Could you find twenty to thirty outstanding nuclear submarine captains in a pinch?* The answer to all of these questions is yes.
* There are several hundred nuclear submarines in the world. I'm thinking the 16th best captain is pretty damn good.
The challenge is separating a quarterback's greatness from all those other factors. What if, for example, Joe Montana was drafted two picks earlier in the 1979 draft, by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Instead of the brilliant Bill Walsh, he would've inherited John McKay as head coach. His premiere wide receiver in the 80's would have been Kevin House rather than Jerry Rice. The average defensive rank of his team from 1980-1989 would have been 20th rather than 7th*. And he would've had to wear those ridiculous orange uniforms.
* The Niner defense was genuinely great in the 80's, not merely a nice complement to a great offense. Their rank in Points Allowed from 1981 to 1989 was: 2, 23, 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, 8, 3.
What kind of career would Joe Montana have had if he'd been picked by the Bucs? I should add that I did not choose the Buccaneers by random. I chose them because in the mid-80's Steve Young spent a couple of seasons as the Tampa quarterback. It did not go well. He won 3 games, threw twice as many interceptions as touchdown passes, completed 52% of his passes, and looked ridiculous in that orange uniform.
What kind of career would Joe Montana have had if he'd been picked by the Bucs? I should add that I did not choose the Buccaneers by random. I chose them because in the mid-80's Steve Young spent a couple of seasons as the Tampa quarterback. It did not go well. He won 3 games, threw twice as many interceptions as touchdown passes, completed 52% of his passes, and looked ridiculous in that orange uniform.
In 1992, however, he replaced Joe Montana and had five brilliant seasons, one of the great runs in quarterback history. He got behind the wheel of that 49er sports car and drove it faster than Montana.
All of these variables - head coach, receiving corps, defense, running game - make it therefore very difficult to truly judge the value of a quarterback, and nearly impossible to conduct something close to a controlled experiment.
But something very close to that is being performed in Indianapolis right now.
Painting a Picture
A while back, I made the case that Tom Brady-Peyton Manning was the best "Who's Better?" debate in sports history. My argument went like this:
A while back, I made the case that Tom Brady-Peyton Manning was the best "Who's Better?" debate in sports history. My argument went like this:
From 2001-2006 Brady-Manning followed the usual script of great player debates. Like Wilt-Russell, Marino-Montana, and ARod-Jeter, one player put up the monster stats and one player put on the rings.
But in 2006-2007, the players reversed roles. In 2006 Manning became Brady. The Colts beat the Patriots multiple times, including a thrilling comeback victory in the 06 AFC Championship game. The Colts went on to win the Super Bowl and Manning was crowned Super Bowl MVP.
More shockingly, in 2007 Brady became Manning. A guy who had been an efficient 3500 yards/25 TD guy suddenly went off for 4800 yards and 50 TDs. After missing all of 2008, Brady has continued as a brilliant quarterback, an elite passer in the NFL. (And to complete his transformation into early 2000s Manning, he stopped winning Super Bowls.)
A handful of rings and elite passing statistics? It's never been done before. Add in the fact that Manning plays in a dome and Brady in the New England winter? As a longtime Manning supporter, I was forced to admit that Brady just might be the better quarterback.
But here's where we come to our controlled experiment. In 2008 Tom Brady got hurt in Week 1 and lost the season. A kid named Matt Cassel, who literally had not started a game at quarterback since he was in high school, got under center. (In fact, he is the only QB in league history to start an NFL game having never started one in college).
How'd he do? The Patriots went 11-5 and had the 5th ranked offense in the NFL. Cassel threw for 3700 yards and 21 TDs with a 63% completion rate. Not bad, huh?
This year, Peyton Manning is out for the season. Curtis Painter is under center for the Indianapolis Colts. Painter has a much more impressive resume than Cassel had. As a sophomore at Purdue, he set the Big 10 passing record. He broke a bunch of Drew Brees' records at Purdue, and would have broken more if not for an injury Senior year.
Painter hasn't been terrible. He's only thrown one interception, and his completion rate and QB rating are both very respectable. He's actually 3rd in the league in Net Yards per Pass Attempt, behind Brady and Rogers.
But the Colts are ranked 31st in total offense, 27th in points scored. And they're 0-6. Since Manning's second season, the Colts have won 10 games or more every year but one*. This year, they've already lost 6.
* That one was 2001 when they went 6-10. It wasn't Manning's fault - the Colts had the #2 offense in the league in 2001. But as has often been the case in Manning's career, he had a bad defense. Colts were ranked 31st in Points Allowed in 2001. The average rank of Colt D since 1998 is 16th in the league. In 2006, Manning won the Super Bowl with a defense ranked 23rd.
Remove Brady from the Patriots' offense and it slows down. Remove Manning from the Colts' offense and it comes skidding to a halt.
It's another interesting twist in the greatest individual "Who's Better?" debate ever.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Thick-Necked Cliche Machines
It’s time for the FreeTime NFL playoff predictions!
While other “analysts” and “experts” try to predict who will “win” the “games”, we go about things a little differently here at FreeTime. That is because we have no idea who will win the games. This is a league, after all, in which the 5/6 seed has won two of the last four Super Bowls, and four of the last twelve.
Bengals-Jets: who knows? Pats-Ravens: you got me. Cowboys-Eagles: beats my two pair. Packers-Cardinals: seriously, I’m not kidding, I have no idea.
But I can confidently predict that an army of large, thick-necked men of limited vocabulary will appear on your television screens over the next month loudly and emphatically spouting cliches that have no basis in established fact.
Here are some of the things you'll hear:
"Defense Wins in the Playoffs, Boom."
This statement is absolutely true…except when it’s not. Since 1970, 15 top-ranked defenses have appeared in the Super Bowl. But 17 top-ranked offenses have appeared. In the same time period, 42 top-five defenses have played in the Super Bowl, while 45 top-five offenses got there.
For every Super Bowl Champion that relied mostly on defense to win (02 Bucs, 00 Ravens), I can name a Super Bowl Champion that relied mostly on offense (99 Rams, 06 Colts). Super Bowl champions, except for the rare exceptions like the four in this paragraph, are teams that are very good on both sides of the ball.
Bonus FreeTime Trivia question: only 3 Super Bowl champs have finished the season #1 in offense and defense. Name them (answer below).
(Hat tip to Arrow Head Addict)
"JB, Momentum is Really Important in the Playoffs."
Last year the Cardinals lost 4 of their last 6, and were blown out in 3 of those losses. They went on to beat the Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles in the playoffs and came within a spectacular Santonio Holmes catch of winning the Super Bowl. The 2007 Giants went 4-4 in the 2nd half and lost 2 of their last 3 games, including a home game against the non-playoff Redskins. They won the Super Bowl.
Oh, and everyone who thinks the Jets are a lock against the Bengals because they blew them out 37-0 last week, consider this: The Eagles destroyed the Cardinals 48-20 in Week 13 last year. Naturally, they lost to the Cardinals in the NFC Championship game two months later.
"As you know, Terry, experience is Really Important in the Playoffs."
On February 3, 2002, Tom Brady walked on the field for Super Bowl XXXV. He was an NFL rookie. It was his 17th NFL start. He started the season on the Patriot’s bench and was only starting because of an injury to Drew Bledsoe. The vast majority of his teammates had zero rings on their fingers. The Patriots won the Super Bowl.
On February 4, 2008, Tom Brady walked on the field for Super Bowl XLII. He was an NFL veteran. He’d had over 100 NFL starts. He was a 3-time Super Bowl winner, a 2-time Super Bowl MVP, that season’s MVP, and a sure-fire Hall of Famer. Most of his teammates had extensive playoff experience and some had multiple Super Bowl rings. The Patriots lost the Super Bowl.
In fact, since 2001 every Super Bowl has been won by a QB appearing in their very first Super Bowl, except for Brady’s 2nd and 3rd, and Roethlisberger’s 2nd. And Roethlisberger’s 2nd was won by a rookie head coach. The head coaches of all those winners (again, except for Belichick), were appearing in their first Super Bowl.
"Special Teams is the Key, Cris."
Yeah, special teams is the key, way more important than scoring points on offense and preventing them on defense. This is too stupid for me to even refute with statistics but I do guarantee these words will be uttered at some point this month. I can, however, explain why people can’t stop themselves from uttering this stupidity once in a while.
Special teams are usually boring, predictable, and uneventful. Punts are rarely returned more than 10 yards, and kick-offs rarely more than 30. Short field goals tend to go in and longer ones are a little sketchier. But every once in a while a kickoff is returned for a touchdown or a field goal is blocked and because that is so unusual it is given more importance than the 120 plays that occurred that day.
But if special teams were so important, they wouldn't put all the backups there.
"In the playoffs..."
What all of the above nonsense has in common is the idea that playoff football is demonstrably different than regular season football. Oh sure, the rules are the same and the field is the same and the scoring is the same and the players are the same and the officials are the same and the equipment is the same…but it’s the playoffs. And different things matter in the playoffs.
Now I’m willing to concede that these thick-necked mastodons have actually played in the playoffs, whereas I mostly watch them on television and occasionally from Section 303 in Giants Stadium. But it seems to me that playoff games work out pretty much the same ways as regular season games. Sometimes it’s a blowout, sometimes its close. Sometimes a handful of big plays are decisive, sometimes it’s a long grind of a game. Sometimes teams win by throwing it 50 times and sometimes they win with a committed ground attack. Sometimes there are dramatic comebacks and sometimes there aren’t. Line play, a balanced offensive attack, putting pressure on the quarterback, turnovers – these things that are so important in regular season games are also important in playoff games.
So whenever you hear the announcer preface any observation with “In the playoffs….” put your b.s. monitor on alert. Oh, and one more thing: take the Packers and the points.
Trivia answer: 72 Dolphins, 89 Niners, and 96 Packers
While other “analysts” and “experts” try to predict who will “win” the “games”, we go about things a little differently here at FreeTime. That is because we have no idea who will win the games. This is a league, after all, in which the 5/6 seed has won two of the last four Super Bowls, and four of the last twelve.
Bengals-Jets: who knows? Pats-Ravens: you got me. Cowboys-Eagles: beats my two pair. Packers-Cardinals: seriously, I’m not kidding, I have no idea.
But I can confidently predict that an army of large, thick-necked men of limited vocabulary will appear on your television screens over the next month loudly and emphatically spouting cliches that have no basis in established fact.
Here are some of the things you'll hear:
"Defense Wins in the Playoffs, Boom."
This statement is absolutely true…except when it’s not. Since 1970, 15 top-ranked defenses have appeared in the Super Bowl. But 17 top-ranked offenses have appeared. In the same time period, 42 top-five defenses have played in the Super Bowl, while 45 top-five offenses got there.
For every Super Bowl Champion that relied mostly on defense to win (02 Bucs, 00 Ravens), I can name a Super Bowl Champion that relied mostly on offense (99 Rams, 06 Colts). Super Bowl champions, except for the rare exceptions like the four in this paragraph, are teams that are very good on both sides of the ball.
Bonus FreeTime Trivia question: only 3 Super Bowl champs have finished the season #1 in offense and defense. Name them (answer below).
(Hat tip to Arrow Head Addict)
"JB, Momentum is Really Important in the Playoffs."
Last year the Cardinals lost 4 of their last 6, and were blown out in 3 of those losses. They went on to beat the Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles in the playoffs and came within a spectacular Santonio Holmes catch of winning the Super Bowl. The 2007 Giants went 4-4 in the 2nd half and lost 2 of their last 3 games, including a home game against the non-playoff Redskins. They won the Super Bowl.
Oh, and everyone who thinks the Jets are a lock against the Bengals because they blew them out 37-0 last week, consider this: The Eagles destroyed the Cardinals 48-20 in Week 13 last year. Naturally, they lost to the Cardinals in the NFC Championship game two months later.
"As you know, Terry, experience is Really Important in the Playoffs."
On February 3, 2002, Tom Brady walked on the field for Super Bowl XXXV. He was an NFL rookie. It was his 17th NFL start. He started the season on the Patriot’s bench and was only starting because of an injury to Drew Bledsoe. The vast majority of his teammates had zero rings on their fingers. The Patriots won the Super Bowl.
On February 4, 2008, Tom Brady walked on the field for Super Bowl XLII. He was an NFL veteran. He’d had over 100 NFL starts. He was a 3-time Super Bowl winner, a 2-time Super Bowl MVP, that season’s MVP, and a sure-fire Hall of Famer. Most of his teammates had extensive playoff experience and some had multiple Super Bowl rings. The Patriots lost the Super Bowl.
In fact, since 2001 every Super Bowl has been won by a QB appearing in their very first Super Bowl, except for Brady’s 2nd and 3rd, and Roethlisberger’s 2nd. And Roethlisberger’s 2nd was won by a rookie head coach. The head coaches of all those winners (again, except for Belichick), were appearing in their first Super Bowl.
"Special Teams is the Key, Cris."
Yeah, special teams is the key, way more important than scoring points on offense and preventing them on defense. This is too stupid for me to even refute with statistics but I do guarantee these words will be uttered at some point this month. I can, however, explain why people can’t stop themselves from uttering this stupidity once in a while.
Special teams are usually boring, predictable, and uneventful. Punts are rarely returned more than 10 yards, and kick-offs rarely more than 30. Short field goals tend to go in and longer ones are a little sketchier. But every once in a while a kickoff is returned for a touchdown or a field goal is blocked and because that is so unusual it is given more importance than the 120 plays that occurred that day.
But if special teams were so important, they wouldn't put all the backups there.
"In the playoffs..."
What all of the above nonsense has in common is the idea that playoff football is demonstrably different than regular season football. Oh sure, the rules are the same and the field is the same and the scoring is the same and the players are the same and the officials are the same and the equipment is the same…but it’s the playoffs. And different things matter in the playoffs.
Now I’m willing to concede that these thick-necked mastodons have actually played in the playoffs, whereas I mostly watch them on television and occasionally from Section 303 in Giants Stadium. But it seems to me that playoff games work out pretty much the same ways as regular season games. Sometimes it’s a blowout, sometimes its close. Sometimes a handful of big plays are decisive, sometimes it’s a long grind of a game. Sometimes teams win by throwing it 50 times and sometimes they win with a committed ground attack. Sometimes there are dramatic comebacks and sometimes there aren’t. Line play, a balanced offensive attack, putting pressure on the quarterback, turnovers – these things that are so important in regular season games are also important in playoff games.
So whenever you hear the announcer preface any observation with “In the playoffs….” put your b.s. monitor on alert. Oh, and one more thing: take the Packers and the points.
Trivia answer: 72 Dolphins, 89 Niners, and 96 Packers
Friday, October 31, 2008
Ventured Guesses
It takes some combination of guts and foolishness to make predictions. The world moves so fast now that anyone who climbs out on the prognostication limb gets it sawed off right behind him.
You want proof? How about The Tampa Bay Rays, Sarah Palin, and Bear Stearns. Anybody see those 3 coming?
In an unpredictable world only fools make predictions.
However, some of us cowardly online pontificators like to venture a guess once in a while. And while it might be seeking credit a bit too early, a couple of my recent ventured guesses seem to be coming to fruition.
1. McCain Plays Security Card
Last week, I wondered why McCain hasn’t made terrorism more of an election issue – specifically, that he hasn’t claimed Republican credit for a total absence of terrorist attacks on U.S. soil since 9/11.
I wrote:
"McCain’s image as a maverick has taken a hit these past few months, but anyone who has followed his career knows he can go wildly off-script at any moment. His campaign has clearly decided not to make this (9/11 and security) an issue, at least not a big one – but maybe he’ll try in the coming weeks, as desperation sets in."
Well, he tried. McCain made a speech in Tampa this week in which he said:
“Barack Obama has displayed some impressive qualities. But the question is whether this is a man who has what it takes to protect America from Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda, and other grave threats in the world. And he has given you no reason to answer in the affirmative.”
"We will finally finish the fight and snuff out Al Qaeda and bin Laden, those who killed 3,000 Americans on 9/11."
So as I predicted (or at least, wondered aloud….), September 11 is now part of the campaign.
[By the way, notice how McCain says the full "Osama bin Laden" and Obama just says "bin Laden". Think that's by accident?]
2. How ‘Bout Them Patriots
When Tom Brady went down, I wrote a piece about how Brady's injury gives us a chance to test a few theses - the first being "Can Belichick win without Brady?" I suggested he could:
"With Belichick coaching, Moss receiving, and the rest of that well-run machine that is the New England Patriots, I’m betting they are playing football this January."
New England fans like the Sports Guy, all of whom think Brady is much better than he actually is, thought the season was over. Well, the Patriots are 5-2 and tied for first place in the AFC East.
Okay, I'm done congratulating myself now. You can go back to what you were doing.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Controlled Experiments
TOM BRADY'S INJURY MAY ANSWER SOME INTERESTING QUESTIONS
When Tom Brady went down in the first quarter of the first game of the 2008 season, I had two immediate reactions.
The first was: “Shoot, there goes my fantasy football season.” Only 5 days earlier, I had used the #3 overall pick in the Murray Fantasy League on Brady, hoping he’d repeat his spectacular 2008 season (4800 yards, 50 TDs). So much for that plan.
But the second was, Hmm….this is as close as you can get to a controlled experiment to test two fascinating premises:
1. Is Bill Belichick a genius?
2. Can Randy Moss make any QB great?
Chickens & Eggs – Is Belichick a Genius?
Here’s your FreeTime fun fact of the day: there are 12 Super Bowl era head coaches in the NFL Hall of Fame. 10 of them had the good fortune of coaching at least one quarterback who is also in the Hall of Fame.
George Allen (Sonny Jurgenson)
Weeb Ewbank (John Unitas, Joe Namath)
The first was: “Shoot, there goes my fantasy football season.” Only 5 days earlier, I had used the #3 overall pick in the Murray Fantasy League on Brady, hoping he’d repeat his spectacular 2008 season (4800 yards, 50 TDs). So much for that plan.
But the second was, Hmm….this is as close as you can get to a controlled experiment to test two fascinating premises:
1. Is Bill Belichick a genius?
2. Can Randy Moss make any QB great?
Chickens & Eggs – Is Belichick a Genius?
Here’s your FreeTime fun fact of the day: there are 12 Super Bowl era head coaches in the NFL Hall of Fame. 10 of them had the good fortune of coaching at least one quarterback who is also in the Hall of Fame.
George Allen (Sonny Jurgenson)
Weeb Ewbank (John Unitas, Joe Namath)
Bud Grant (Fran Tarkenton)
Tom Landry (Roger Staubach)
Marv Levy (Jim Kelly)
Vince Lombardi (Bart Starr)
Chuck Noll (Terry Bradshaw)
Don Shula (John Unitas, Bob Griese, Dan Marino)
Hank Stram (Len Dawson)
Bill Walsh (Joe Montana)
The 11th, John Madden, had Kenny Stabler. During Madden’s coaching career Stabler made four Pro Bowls*, won an NFL MVP, and twice led the league in TD passes. Stabler is arguably the best NFL quarterback not in the Hall of Fame. He was certainly better than Namath and Griese.
The 12th is Joe Gibbs. Joe Gibbs won 3 Super Bowls with 3 different quarterbacks, none of whom were serious contenders for Canton. If you want to argue Joe Gibbs is the greatest coach of the modern era, you’ll get no argument here.
Bill Belichick is also Hall-bound, and like most of the others will be joined by his quarterback. But now we get to find out – can he succeed without Tom Brady?
Remember that this isn’t the first time Belichick lost his star quarterback. In the 2nd game of the 2001 season, Drew Bledsoe went down, and Belichick was forced to turn to his untested 6th round draft pick, Tom Brady. The rest is history.
Eggs & Chickens – Does the receiver make the quarterback?
Maybe it’s not the head coach who makes the quarterback successful, or vice-versa. Maybe, just maybe, the most important guy on the field is the superstar wide receiver.
Wide receivers don’t get much love. 32 quarterbacks and 17 running backs have won an MVP, as have one defensive tackle and one linebacker. Hell, even a kicker won one (Mark Moseley, who missed 3 XPs that year) . But no wide receiver has ever been considered most valuable. (Maybe that’s why so many of them are assholes.)
And yet, there is significant statistical evidence that great wide receivers turn otherwise mundane quarterbacks into very good quarterbacks, and very good quarterbacks into great ones. Head over to pro-football-reference.com and look at the numbers for Jeff Garcia, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Randall Cunningham and Tom Brady.
Notice anything? All of them had crazy-good seasons when they were throwing to guys named Terrell Owens and Randy Moss – and less than crazy-good seasons the rest of the time.
Donovan McNabb has been a solid NFL quarterback who has led his team to many playoff appearances and appeared in five Pro Bowls, But his 2004 season stands out. He posted, by far, his best numbers in TD passes, yardage, QB rating, and completion percentage. It was the only full season he spent with T.O.
Jeff Garcia had 3 full seasons with T.O. He averaged 3720 yards and 28 TDs (30+ in two of them), and went to three straight Pro Bowls. He has been a sub-par quarterback the rest of his career.
Culpepper had three 16-game seasons with Moss at wideout. He threw for over 30 TDs in two of them, and made the Pro Bowl all 3. Since 2004, their last season together, he has been injured and ineffective and is now out of football.
My favorite is Cunningham. In 1998 Randall Cunningham was 35 years old, his best years well behind him, when he suddenly had a career year. Eight years removed from his last Pro Bowl appearance, he threw for 34 TDs, led the league with a 106.0 QB rating, and received his first and only All-Pro selection. Naturally, he was throwing to Moss that year.
And then there is the strange case of Thomas Edward Brady. Tom Brady won 3 Super Bowls before Randy Moss ever got to Foxboro, so he didn’t need Moss to be a great quarterback. But he did need Moss to become a great passer – which some people think is an integral part of the quarterback position.
Prior to Moss’ lining up alongside him, Brady had been a very good passer, but not a great one. He led the league in yards one year and TD passes another (with an unimpressive league leading 28). He had a very good TD/INT rate, and kept his QB rating in the mid-80’s to low 90’s. He was over 60% every year in pass completion percentage.
But he had never thrown for 30 TDs (those guys above all threw for 30+ when throwing to Moss/TO). He had only one 4000 yard season. And while he made a few Pro Bowls, he never made All-Pro.
Then Moss signed with the Patriots, and Tom Brady re-wrote the record books. Anyone with an objective mind would have to think, hmmm, Moss made him much better.
Have Fun Storming the Cassel
How will Bill Belichick do with Matt Cassel at quarterback? How will Cassel do with Moss?
He’s not the ideal quarterback for our controlled experiment because we have no benchmark to compare his performance. I’d rather it be Brian Griese or Kerry Collins or some guy who has a track record. In other words, we have no idea how good/bad Cassel is, so it's difficult to determine what kind of impact Belichick/Moss are having on him.
But consider this: in his few fleeting moments on an NFL gridiron, he has played what amounts to a full game. And it was a pretty good game: 22 of 39 for 255 yards, 2 TDs and a pick.
With Belichick coaching, Moss receiving, and the rest of that well-run machine that is the New England Patriots, I’m betting they are playing football this January.
Tom Landry (Roger Staubach)
Marv Levy (Jim Kelly)
Vince Lombardi (Bart Starr)
Chuck Noll (Terry Bradshaw)
Don Shula (John Unitas, Bob Griese, Dan Marino)
Hank Stram (Len Dawson)
Bill Walsh (Joe Montana)
The 11th, John Madden, had Kenny Stabler. During Madden’s coaching career Stabler made four Pro Bowls*, won an NFL MVP, and twice led the league in TD passes. Stabler is arguably the best NFL quarterback not in the Hall of Fame. He was certainly better than Namath and Griese.
The 12th is Joe Gibbs. Joe Gibbs won 3 Super Bowls with 3 different quarterbacks, none of whom were serious contenders for Canton. If you want to argue Joe Gibbs is the greatest coach of the modern era, you’ll get no argument here.
Bill Belichick is also Hall-bound, and like most of the others will be joined by his quarterback. But now we get to find out – can he succeed without Tom Brady?
Remember that this isn’t the first time Belichick lost his star quarterback. In the 2nd game of the 2001 season, Drew Bledsoe went down, and Belichick was forced to turn to his untested 6th round draft pick, Tom Brady. The rest is history.
Eggs & Chickens – Does the receiver make the quarterback?
Maybe it’s not the head coach who makes the quarterback successful, or vice-versa. Maybe, just maybe, the most important guy on the field is the superstar wide receiver.
Wide receivers don’t get much love. 32 quarterbacks and 17 running backs have won an MVP, as have one defensive tackle and one linebacker. Hell, even a kicker won one (Mark Moseley, who missed 3 XPs that year) . But no wide receiver has ever been considered most valuable. (Maybe that’s why so many of them are assholes.)
And yet, there is significant statistical evidence that great wide receivers turn otherwise mundane quarterbacks into very good quarterbacks, and very good quarterbacks into great ones. Head over to pro-football-reference.com and look at the numbers for Jeff Garcia, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Randall Cunningham and Tom Brady.
Notice anything? All of them had crazy-good seasons when they were throwing to guys named Terrell Owens and Randy Moss – and less than crazy-good seasons the rest of the time.
Donovan McNabb has been a solid NFL quarterback who has led his team to many playoff appearances and appeared in five Pro Bowls, But his 2004 season stands out. He posted, by far, his best numbers in TD passes, yardage, QB rating, and completion percentage. It was the only full season he spent with T.O.
Jeff Garcia had 3 full seasons with T.O. He averaged 3720 yards and 28 TDs (30+ in two of them), and went to three straight Pro Bowls. He has been a sub-par quarterback the rest of his career.
Culpepper had three 16-game seasons with Moss at wideout. He threw for over 30 TDs in two of them, and made the Pro Bowl all 3. Since 2004, their last season together, he has been injured and ineffective and is now out of football.
My favorite is Cunningham. In 1998 Randall Cunningham was 35 years old, his best years well behind him, when he suddenly had a career year. Eight years removed from his last Pro Bowl appearance, he threw for 34 TDs, led the league with a 106.0 QB rating, and received his first and only All-Pro selection. Naturally, he was throwing to Moss that year.
And then there is the strange case of Thomas Edward Brady. Tom Brady won 3 Super Bowls before Randy Moss ever got to Foxboro, so he didn’t need Moss to be a great quarterback. But he did need Moss to become a great passer – which some people think is an integral part of the quarterback position.
Prior to Moss’ lining up alongside him, Brady had been a very good passer, but not a great one. He led the league in yards one year and TD passes another (with an unimpressive league leading 28). He had a very good TD/INT rate, and kept his QB rating in the mid-80’s to low 90’s. He was over 60% every year in pass completion percentage.
But he had never thrown for 30 TDs (those guys above all threw for 30+ when throwing to Moss/TO). He had only one 4000 yard season. And while he made a few Pro Bowls, he never made All-Pro.
Then Moss signed with the Patriots, and Tom Brady re-wrote the record books. Anyone with an objective mind would have to think, hmmm, Moss made him much better.
Have Fun Storming the Cassel
How will Bill Belichick do with Matt Cassel at quarterback? How will Cassel do with Moss?
He’s not the ideal quarterback for our controlled experiment because we have no benchmark to compare his performance. I’d rather it be Brian Griese or Kerry Collins or some guy who has a track record. In other words, we have no idea how good/bad Cassel is, so it's difficult to determine what kind of impact Belichick/Moss are having on him.
But consider this: in his few fleeting moments on an NFL gridiron, he has played what amounts to a full game. And it was a pretty good game: 22 of 39 for 255 yards, 2 TDs and a pick.
With Belichick coaching, Moss receiving, and the rest of that well-run machine that is the New England Patriots, I’m betting they are playing football this January.
* A quick primer on the difference between Pro Bowl and All Pro. The Pro Bowl is like the All Star game - full rosters of 45 guys from each conference are selected. Starters, reserves - plus replacements for injured players. All total, over 100 players are "Pro Bowlers" every year. All Pro is a much higher honor. Each year, the Associated Press selects one guy at every position for their All Pro team. So, Tom Brady has been selected to four Pro Bowls, but was not selected All Pro until last year. Peyton Manning, a much better passer than Brady till last year, has gone to 8 Pro Bowls and was selected All Pro three times. Amazingly, in 2006, Manning led the league in TD passes and QB rating and was 2nd in yards, but didn't make All Pro.
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