Friday, October 31, 2008

Ventured Guesses

It takes some combination of guts and foolishness to make predictions. The world moves so fast now that anyone who climbs out on the prognostication limb gets it sawed off right behind him.

You want proof? How about The Tampa Bay Rays, Sarah Palin, and Bear Stearns. Anybody see those 3 coming?

In an unpredictable world only fools make predictions.

However, some of us cowardly online pontificators like to venture a guess once in a while. And while it might be seeking credit a bit too early, a couple of my recent ventured guesses seem to be coming to fruition.

1. McCain Plays Security Card

Last week, I wondered why McCain hasn’t made terrorism more of an election issue – specifically, that he hasn’t claimed Republican credit for a total absence of terrorist attacks on U.S. soil since 9/11.

I wrote:

"McCain’s image as a maverick has taken a hit these past few months, but anyone who has followed his career knows he can go wildly off-script at any moment. His campaign has clearly decided not to make this (9/11 and security) an issue, at least not a big one – but maybe he’ll try in the coming weeks, as desperation sets in."

Well, he tried. McCain made a speech in Tampa this week in which he said:

“Barack Obama has displayed some impressive qualities. But the question is whether this is a man who has what it takes to protect America from Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda, and other grave threats in the world. And he has given you no reason to answer in the affirmative.”

Obama immediately responded, repeating this line in a series of speeches:

"We will finally finish the fight and snuff out Al Qaeda and bin Laden, those who killed 3,000 Americans on 9/11."

So as I predicted (or at least, wondered aloud….), September 11 is now part of the campaign.

[By the way, notice how McCain says the full "Osama bin Laden" and Obama just says "bin Laden". Think that's by accident?]

2. How ‘Bout Them Patriots

When Tom Brady went down, I wrote a piece about how Brady's injury gives us a chance to test a few theses - the first being "Can Belichick win without Brady?" I suggested he could:

"With Belichick coaching, Moss receiving, and the rest of that well-run machine that is the New England Patriots, I’m betting they are playing football this January."

New England fans like the Sports Guy, all of whom think Brady is much better than he actually is, thought the season was over. Well, the Patriots are 5-2 and tied for first place in the AFC East.

Okay, I'm done congratulating myself now. You can go back to what you were doing.

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