The first is the ‘Electoral College vs. Popular Vote’ debate. (If you want to know about the flawed premise in that debate click here and scroll down to the section titled ‘When You Assume’).
But the far more important one pertains to all conversations about the Baseball and Football Halls of Fame*.
* I’m aware that other sports have Halls of Fame but nobody cares about them.
The flawed premise is this: “Will [insert player name] get into the Hall of Fame?” is a very different question than “Should [insert player name] get into the Hall of Fame?” But most people elide the question and confuse the issue.
I first wrote about Eli Manning’s chances for the Hall back in January of 2012, while they were still cleaning up the confetti after his 2nd Super Bowl parade. My attention was solely on the first question: Will Eli get in? Obviously a 2nd Super Bowl title and a 2nd Super Bowl MVP put him in the conversation.
But what most people didn’t realize at the time was that his career passing statistics – in particular yardage and TDs – had him on a pace to easily break into the Top 10 all time. As I wrote at the time:
"When you're talking Halls of Fame…it's essentially a math problem. You look at the numbers, do some projections, and voila' - you can make a pretty good guess at their chances."
I did the math. I made conservative and aggressive projections, compared those to the last six QBs elected (since all had started their career after 1980), and declared Eli’s Hall chances to be quite good.
Eli Manning’s career is now officially over and all the data is in. It’s time to reassess the question:
Will Eli Manning get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton Ohio?
The Good, The Bad, and The Intangibles
The Good
The headline is obvious: 2 Super Bowl wins (and 2 SB MVPs, which many of his critics conveniently forget) and Top 10 rankings in just about every passing statistic.
The stats that matter most to Hall voters are Yardage and TDs. (If Hall voters gave a flying fig about completion percentage, Chad Pennington would be in the Hall of Fame). As for Interceptions…well, I’ll get to that later.
Eli finished his career 7th in Yardage. With Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers in striking distance, he could be 10th by the time he’s eligible. (but he also could be 8th, as Big Ben’s career is in doubt and Rodgers is 10,000 yards behind and turns 37 next year).
He’s also 7th in TD passes, with the same 3 guys trailing him. They are all hot on his heels and much more likely to pass him*.
* Eli's final numbers fell somewhere between my aggressive and conservative projections. I projected between 48-71k passing yards; he ended up with 57k. I projected between 259 and 483 TDs; he ended up with 366. Not bad, huh?
The next closest active player in both categories is Matthew Stafford, who is quite a way back. After Stafford the only active player with a shot of passing Eli within the decade is Russell Wilson.
So at the time of voting Eli Manning will likely have those two Super Bowl rings, those two Super Bowl MVP awards, and be Top 10 in the categories that matter most to Hall voters. He’s in, right?
The Bad
Here’s where we run into some problems. One problem really. For most of his career Eli Manning has been a good, but not great, quarterback.
His record, famously, is 117-117.
He’s only made 4 Pro Bowls. He’s never made All-Pro. He’s never led the league in anything except interceptions*.
* Though his interception totals are not as bad as many think. The HoF is jammed with QBs who have more picks and worse INT % than Eli. He threw more TDs than INTs every season except his shortened rookie year and his one truly terrible season (2013, when he went 18/27; and bounced back with a marvelous 2014 season, throwing for 4400 yards and 30/14 TD/INT ratio)
He never won a playoff game outside those two runs.
When the Hall debate happens for Eli, his detractors will have some good arguments.
The Intangibles
Let's take a moment to discuss how the Pro Football Hall of Fame conducts its voting. It is radically different from the Baseball Hall of Fame's procedures, and I believe works in Eli's favor.
In baseball, all qualified members of the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) get a ballot, and can submit up to 10 names. 425 ballots were submitted, and if a candidate is named on 75% of the votes he's in.
But in football, there are only 48 members of the Selection Committee. They actually get in a room together and talk. They talk at length about each of the final 25 candidates. They debate. They tell stories. They argue. It is a sports fan's dream.
This makes sense, because for many football players, statistics are meaningless. How do you judge an offensive lineman by his stats? How do you compare the stats of a tight end who could block and a tight end who couldn't? How do you measure the greatness of a shutdown cornerback?
For the Pro Football Hall of Fame, intangibles matter. Stories matter. You see, I was wrong back in 2012. Election to the Baseball Hall of Fame is essentially a math problem, but in football it's more nuanced than that.
So yes, there will be people in that room talking about Eli's Top 10 ranking in passing yardage and TDs. And obviously the two Super Bowl wins will be front and center.
But when Eli's critics in the room bring up the interceptions his supporters will be there to say...so what? Brett Favre threw more picks than anyone else in NFL history. When an old-timer in the room grumbles about the picks his supporters will point out that Johnny Unitas - Johnny Unitas! - threw more picks than Eli.
When Eli's critics point out his career .500 record, his supporters will remind the room that Joe Namath had a losing record (and 43 more picks than TDs!). But Joe Namath is in the Hall of Fame because Joe Namath won one of the most memorable Super Bowls in football history. Joe Namath mattered to the history of the NFL.
And then Eli's supporters will mount their counter attack.
Eli didn't just win two Super Bowls, they'll say. He won two Super Bowl MVPs.
He didn't just win two Super Bowl MVPs. He won them against the greatest dynasty this sport has ever seen.
He didn't just win them against the greatest dynasty this sport has ever seen. He won them in style - throwing two of the most famous passes in NFL history late in the 4th quarter.
He didn't just beat the greatest dynasty this sport has ever seen -twice - he did it at the conclusion of two epic January runs. The combined records of the 8 teams the Giants beat on the way to its 2 Super Bowls: 108-26. Six of the eight teams were 13-3 or better in regular season.
And as the television informercial announcers say...but wait, there's more!
You think Eli was only clutch in January? In the regular season, he is ranked 10th All-Time with 35 Game Winning Drives. That's more than 20 Hall of Famers. He has more than Bart Starr and Len Dawson combined. He has twice as many as Steve Young.
Eli elevated every single pass catcher he played with. Look at the remainder of the careers and statlines of Plaxico Burress, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Kevin Boss, Jake Ballard, Larry Donnell, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Rueben Randle. And while it's too early to tell, many observers (including this one!) thought Odell Beckham Jr. would thrive in Cleveland. Instead his 16-game average went from the ridiculously amazing 106 catches/1485 yards/12 TDs under the supposedly awful late-career Eli Manning to the slightly above-average 74/1035/4 with emerging star Baker Mayfield.
Does toughness matter in the NFL? Let's not forget those 210 consecutive games started.
And finally, what kind of man was he? Did he represent the league with class? Eli Manning played in the bright spotlight of New York City. He was hammered by the press his first season. He was hammered by the press and fans most of the 2007 regular season. He had to live up to the precedent set by an NFL father and an older brother who was the finest quarterback the league has ever seen. And never, not once, not even for a single moment - not even when he was unceremoniously benched for Geno F#!cking Smith - was he less than the epitome of class.
Right around this time, if one of his supporters think the vote is in the balance, the room will be reminded that in 2016 Eli Manning was the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year.
These stories will matter in that voting room.
A Few Words for the Morons
Anyone who listens to sports radio knows the world is full of morons. I have heard some galactically stupid arguments against Eli's induction from these morons, and would like to deal with them now. I encourage you to read these questions in your best Stupid Sports Fan voice.
What About Joe Flacco? He had one of the greatest Super Bowls of All Time!
When Joe Flacco wins a second Super Bowl MVP and throws for another 17,000 yards and 150 TDs, I'll write a bunch of words in support of his candidacy.
They should've whistled Eli down before he threw that Tyree pass!
Ah, a New England Patriot fan. I think my favorite thing about the career of Eli Manning is how he drives Patriots fans out of their minds. The Patriots have used tuck rules and cameras and deflated footballs and every trick in the book and few ones that aren't in the book, so I think we can ignore them here.
Eli was done after the 2nd Super Bowl. He just padded his stats after that.
Anybody who says this is either:
a) lying
b) has no access to the internet
c) is too flipping stupid to participate in this conversation.
From 2014-2017 Eli averaged 4,084 yards, 28 TDs, and 14 picks a season. The Giants were a truly terrible team in this period - but the only thing that didn't suck was the passing game.
In 2018, his last full season as a starter, he threw for 4300 yards, tossed 21 TD passes against 11 picks, and had the highest completion % of his career. He had a virtually identical passing season as Tom Brady, who along with his much better coaching staff and teammates won another Super Bowl.
In Conclusion
See you in Canton. And if anyone knows a Hall of Fame voter, please forward them this post.
What About Joe Flacco? He had one of the greatest Super Bowls of All Time!
When Joe Flacco wins a second Super Bowl MVP and throws for another 17,000 yards and 150 TDs, I'll write a bunch of words in support of his candidacy.
They should've whistled Eli down before he threw that Tyree pass!
Ah, a New England Patriot fan. I think my favorite thing about the career of Eli Manning is how he drives Patriots fans out of their minds. The Patriots have used tuck rules and cameras and deflated footballs and every trick in the book and few ones that aren't in the book, so I think we can ignore them here.
Eli was done after the 2nd Super Bowl. He just padded his stats after that.
Anybody who says this is either:
a) lying
b) has no access to the internet
c) is too flipping stupid to participate in this conversation.
From 2014-2017 Eli averaged 4,084 yards, 28 TDs, and 14 picks a season. The Giants were a truly terrible team in this period - but the only thing that didn't suck was the passing game.
In 2018, his last full season as a starter, he threw for 4300 yards, tossed 21 TD passes against 11 picks, and had the highest completion % of his career. He had a virtually identical passing season as Tom Brady, who along with his much better coaching staff and teammates won another Super Bowl.
In Conclusion
See you in Canton. And if anyone knows a Hall of Fame voter, please forward them this post.
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