Cooperstown Follows Up The Baines Blunder with The Mariano Mistake
Before I begin, let’s get a few things straight:
- I fully and firmly support Mariano Rivera’s induction into the Hall of Fame. He is, without question, the greatest reliever of all time.
- I understand that a unanimous selection technically doesn’t mean anything. Harold Baines was on the ballot for five years and never got more than 10% of the vote – but thanks to the Eras Committee (which should be pronounced 'Errors Committee', ba-dum-bump), he will be as much of a full-fledged member of the Hall as Mariano and his 100%.
- I believe the New York Yankees are the source of all evil in the universe, and I am not to be trusted as any kind of objective source.
That said…
The Unanimous Selection thing is important. Yes, I know the history, about how Joe DiMaggio didn’t get on till the fourth ballot and how voting was different in Babe Ruth’s day and all of that.
BUT – things matter because we, collectively, agree they matter. There is no reason whatsoever that the Nobel Peace Prize should matter. Over a century ago, the guy who invented dynamite set aside some money and some vague instruction that five obscure Norwegian legislators should give out a peace prize.
Who they pick shouldn’t matter at all. And yet, it’s arguably the most prestigious prize a human can win because, well, I HAVE NO IDEA WHY IT MATTERS.
It shouldn’t matter. But it does. It does because we’ve agreed it does.
And I can guarantee you that the term “first-time unanimous selection to the Baseball Hall of Fame” is an honor permanently attached to the name of Mariano Rivera. It will not be attached to the name of Greg Maddux or Tom Seaver or Bob Gibson. It is how he will be introduced at every speech he ever gives, in every article ever written about him. It will be in his obituary. It will be trotted out in every baseball argument about him.
It matters.
And as great as Mariano is, the idea that this incredibly prestigious honor should go to a relief pitcher, well…
But First, The Good Stuff!
Let’s get all of the good stuff out of the way first.
Mariano Rivera was the most unhittable pitcher of the modern era. He has the 13th lowest ERA of all time, and you haven’t heard of most of the other 12 because they pitched in an era when men wore Civil War beards unironically. There are some legends ahead of him on the list like Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson, but also such forgotten hurlers as Jack Pfeister and Tommy Bond.
Those other guys I mentioned above – Maddux and Seaver and Gibson? They are ranked 234*, 125, and 142.
Nobody born after the invention of the bra has been better at keeping the other team from scoring than Mariano Rivera.*
* I'm using ERA as my uber-stat for this post. It's the one very valuable stat that traditionalists and saberemetricians can all agree on. If only hitters had such a stat...
* I'm using ERA as my uber-stat for this post. It's the one very valuable stat that traditionalists and saberemetricians can all agree on. If only hitters had such a stat...
And he was truly otherworldly in the post-season. Over a decent sample size of 96 games – games in which he was facing generally better hitting than he would in the regular season, his ERA dropped all the way down to 0.70. Are you kidding me?
This doesn’t happen. Take Derek Jeter, for example. Jeter and Mariano are unique in baseball history because they are the only two players to have a very long career spent entirely in the Wild Card era on a team that not only played every October, but often advanced deep in the playoffs. As a result, their post-season stats amount to just about a full MLB season.
And Derek Jeter, in the post-season, was, well, Derek Jeter. He hit .310 in the regular season, and .308 in the playoffs. His OPS was .817 in the regular season, .838 in the playoffs. Give Jeter credit for maintaining his high performance in the post-season, but he didn’t become a better player. He was almost exactly the same player.
But Mariano Rivera got into the playoffs and – I mean – what the hell? He takes the best regular season ERA since Hoover was President...and shaves 2/3rds of that in the offseason?
My only question is: how did he throw that cutter with his Superman cape on?
The Dubious Value of Closers
And yet…there is significant, powerful, arguably irrefutable evidence that the Closer is just about the most useless position in all of professional sports.
And yet…there is significant, powerful, arguably irrefutable evidence that the Closer is just about the most useless position in all of professional sports.
Now if you're one of those people who rolls your eyes at the truths uncovered by baseball researchers lo these past many years, you should click away from this page. Here's a crotchety old "get off my lawn" anti-stats piece for you.
Project Retrosheet is an organization that goes back and looks at old box scores, at every inning of every game ever played. And one thing they learned - I should say, one thing they proved, because we all kind of know this anyway - is that teams with 9th inning leads tend to win those games.
And I mean, they win them all the time, and they win them regardless of what relief pitcher strategies team employ. Back when guys were starting 65 games and going 40-15, they won 90% of the games. Back when Goose Gossage was coming in for 3 innings and blowing 1/3 of the save opportunities, they won 90% of the games. And now, in the age of the 9th inning specialist, they win 90% of those games.
Specifically, for all of baseball history, going back to the days before basketball was even a thing:
- teams leading by one run after 8 innings win 85.7% of the time
- teams leading by two runs after 8 innings win 93.7% of the time
- teams leading by three runs after 8 innings win 97.5% of the time
Do you know what Mariano Rivera's save rate is? 89.1%. Which is, you know, almost as good as Joe Nathan's.
In just about every game Mariano has ever played, the Yankees were going to win anyway.
But Wait, There's More!
There are, of course, other reasons to wrinkle your brow at a closer getting the unanimity honor.
* Last year, Jacob DeGrom won the ERA title, posting a glittering 1.96 ERA over 217 innings. But this guy you never heard of, Blake Treinen, had a 0.71 ERA for the Oakland A's. He pitched only 80 innings, a total Rivera only reached once as a reliever
Want more proof that closer is kind of an easy gig?
Terrible starters become great closers (like, um, Mariano Rivera; turns out having just one pitch isn't particularly useful for a starter).
Mediocre starters can have epic seasons as closers (see Isringhausen, Jason).
And legitimately good-to-great starters like Dennis Eckersley and John Smoltz? Tell them they only have to pitch one inning a couple times a week, and they set records.
Some Trivia!
There are, of course, other reasons to wrinkle your brow at a closer getting the unanimity honor.
- Rivera pitched 1,282 innings in his career
- Mike Mussina, Rivera's Hall of Fame classmate and Yankee teammate, pitched 3,562 innings in his career
- Tom Seaver, who used to be able to say he was elected to the Hall of Fame with the highest %, pitched 4,783 innings in his career
* Last year, Jacob DeGrom won the ERA title, posting a glittering 1.96 ERA over 217 innings. But this guy you never heard of, Blake Treinen, had a 0.71 ERA for the Oakland A's. He pitched only 80 innings, a total Rivera only reached once as a reliever
Want more proof that closer is kind of an easy gig?
Terrible starters become great closers (like, um, Mariano Rivera; turns out having just one pitch isn't particularly useful for a starter).
Mediocre starters can have epic seasons as closers (see Isringhausen, Jason).
And legitimately good-to-great starters like Dennis Eckersley and John Smoltz? Tell them they only have to pitch one inning a couple times a week, and they set records.
Some Trivia!
- Who is the only closer in major league history to blow a Game 7 World Series lead in the 9th Inning?
- Who is the only closer to blow two saves as their team blew a 3-0 lead in a Championship series?
Okay, now I'm just being a jerk. But also making a point. Mariano Rivera mowed people down in the post-season, but he wasn't perfect. In fact, he was 42 of 46 in save situations which is 91.3%. It's very good. But 5 closers in baseball last year had better save %'s.
In Closing
So everyone enjoy this year's Hall of Fame induction ceremonies, where the inductees will be:
- One guy who only pitched 70 or 80 innings a year
- One guy who didn't play defense
- One guy who never got more than 10% of the vote while eligible
- Two guys who would never have gotten in with their Wins totals if not for the impact of advanced metrics on voting
Meanwhile, the greatest pitcher of all time and the greatest hitter of all time will be denied entry once again. But that's a subject for another day.
