Thumb's Up

Possible Outcomes in Today's Patriots - Jaguars Game

Tom Brady's injury - or non-injury, or whatever - is the biggest development in Thumb History since the invention of hitchhiking.  Since nobody outside the Patriots' camp has any idea if TB12 is severely injured, moderately injured, or uninjured, I thought I'd take a few moments to explore the possible scenarios:

Patriots are Lying/Brady Plays/Patriots Win
Bill Belichick has always considered the NFL rulebook a quaint set of guidelines designed for other teams.  Here is the policy:

Clubs are responsible for reporting the information accurately to the public, to the opposing team, local and national media, broadcast partners and others.

The Patriots have ignored, abused, and leveraged the policy for years, using the injury report as just another tool to spread disinformation, confusion, and propaganda.  "In wartime, the truth is so precious she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies", said Winston Churchill, and while there may occasionally be a scrap of truth in the Patriots' injury report, it is usually attended by a bodyguard of lies.

But, while I put nothing past the great Sith Lord Belichick, I doubt he would sit Brady at practice on Thursday just to confuse the inexperienced Jaguars' coaching staff.

Patriots are Lying/Brady Plays/Patriots Lose
Then again...

I am quite serious when I say, that if Bill Belichick had been in charge of the CIA in the 50s and 60s, the Soviet Union would have fallen 20 years earlier.  The man is a born spymaster, a master of deception, a prober and exploiter of weakness.

Would he take a minor Brady thumb jam, see it as an opportunity to sow confusion, find some other way for TB12 to get his reps, and...nah.  I don't think so.  The Patriots might know damn well that the Precious Thumb will be healed by Sunday, but there must have been some kind of legitimate injury for him to miss Thursday's practice.

Well, if nothing else, if a healthy Brady plays and the Patriots lose, they have a built-in excuse.

Brady Not 100%/Brady Plays/Patriots Win
If we've learned one thing in Patriots history, it's that if the Patriots win, Tom is the only player who gets any credit.  Lost in last year's Super Bowl comeback was the fact that the Patriots' defense held the historically great Falcon offense scoreless in the 2nd half.  It was one of the great championship performances ever - but nobody talks about it, because Tom doesn't play defense.  In the Pat's championship seasons, Malcolm Butler's interception, Adam Vintatieri's kicks, or just that the fact that the first 3 Super Bowl wins were powered by defense - these are all footnotes in the bible of the Church of Brady.

So if Brady plays, and they win, I feel pretty confident saying that no matter what role coaching, special teams, defense, Jaguar mistakes, the weather, the stock market, Trump's tweets or any other thing play in the outcome of the game - we will hear an awful lot about Tom's Courage.

Brady Not 100%/Brady Plays/Patriots Lose
Given recent reports out of New England that Kraft essentially forced the Garoppolo* trade on Belichick to protect his BFF Tom,  this would be the most fascinating outcome.  Garappolo has yet to lose a game as a starting quarterback, and the Patriots have a short history of shrugging off Brady injuries to win anyway...so if this outcome happens, we're going to be hearing an awful lot about how the Patriots might have blown a chance at another title by trading Jimmy G.

*  If Jimmy Garoppolo is as good as Pro Football Focus says he is, we're going to have to learn to spell his name.  It's a tricky one, but remember;  2 P's and a lot of O's.


Brady Injured/Doesn't Play/Patriots Lose
Same as above - lots of Jimmy Garoppolo talk if this happens.


Brady Injured/Doesn't Play/Patriots Win
As I've written before, the Brady vs. Manning Debate is the greatest "Who is Better?" sports argument of all time.

Brady has taken the lead from Manning in most people's eyes, as he has added awesome offensive production to a full handful of rings.  Manning will still likely have better passing statistics (unless TB really does play until he's 62), but Brady's stats are close enough and, combined with the rings, will likely claim the title.

Except for one little chink in the armor:

- When Brady doesn't play, the Patriots are fine.  Brady is out for the entire 2008 season?  Hmm, here's a guy on his roster who hasn't played since high school, let's make him quarterback!  Pats go 11-5 with Matt Cassel under center.  Brady is suspended for 4 games (remember that little rulebook thing above) of the 2016 season?  Pats go 3-1 under their 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks.

- When Manning doesn't play, everything goes to hell.  In 2010, the Colts went 10-6 and went to the AFC Championship game.  They were coming off 9 straight double-digit win seasons, and had won 12 or more in 7 of them.  But Manning missed the 2011 season and the Colts went 2-14.  And their backup quarterback, Curtis Painter, was a much more accomplished quarterback than Matt Cassell - he had broken many of Drew Brees' records at Purdue.

Even Bad Peyton can't be replaced.  Manning wins the Super Bowl in 2015, playing poorly.  He retires, and Broncos win only 14 games the next two seasons, after having won 12 in Manning's last.

If Brian Hoyer leads the Patriots to a win today, it makes you wonder whether or not Bill Belichick even needs professional players to win NFL games.

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There is a final scenario of course.  Tom Brady's thumb was actually ripped completely off his hand last week, but under the care of his Guru Alex Guerrero and the TB12 system - and perhaps an assist from Kramer driving the bus - the thumb was reattached, automatically regenerated, and is more powerful and accurate than ever.  He plays at his Bradyesque best, Blake Bortles' breaks down in tears after throwing his 6th interception, and the world has to, once again, watch the goddamned Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Too bad Eli isn't there to stop them.